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Prediction for CME (2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-21T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28663/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME overlaps partially with the faint CME seen to the E/SE starting at 2024-01-20T23:12Z. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption and associated flaring seen in AR13559. The filament sat along the lower boundary of this active region, stretching from ~N20E32 to N25E50 and is centered around N20E41. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of the CME seen at 2024-01-20T09:24Z and this CME beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-23T05:59Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-21 03:40
 - Time at C2: 2024-01-21 00:36
 - Radial speed: 1068.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S03E33
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 726.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-23 05:59 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.40 hours)
Lead Time: 22.50 hour(s)
Difference: -13.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-01-21T17:31Z
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